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Anticipated lists

Seats on the 2028 ballot that meet criteria American Ascent states, applied to public facts. Each seat shows which criteria it meets and links to its full record.
HouseSenateGovernors

About these lists

Anticipated marks a seat that meets a criterion American Ascent states for 2028. Each criterion is a fact anyone can check, with its source and date. A governor’s seat that a term limit, or the governor’s own statement that they will not run, already opens is listed first, as an open seat.

A seat is listed when it meets at least one criterion. The lists are in seat order. The count beside each seat says how many criteria it meets.

The full method is on the Method page.

Anticipated
A fact that can open the seat in 2028, under a criterion American Ascent states.

Anticipated: House seats

97 of the 168 members in the House field are listed, in seat order, each with the criteria it meets.

The criteria that open a seat

  1. Running for another office

    The member has said they will run for another office in 2028, so they will not be on the ballot for this seat. The seat is open.

    The member’s own words as reported, with the source and date. 1 member meets it.

AnticipatedThe other criteria

  1. 75 or older

    The member will be 75 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028. Every member of the House field is 62 or older; this list uses 75.

    Age from the member’s date of birth, computed on November 7, 2028. 49 members meet it.

  2. Retirement signal

    A public retirement signal is on record: reporting or a statement that points to a 2028 departure the officeholder has not announced.

    The site’s hand-kept list of retirement signals, with the reporting behind each. 0 members meet it.

  3. 2032 redistricting flag

    The seat is in one of the seven states American Ascent flags for the maps drawn after the 2030 census, the first used in 2032.

    The flag and who draws each state’s map are explained on the Method page. 47 members meet it.

  4. 2026 primary under 65%

    The member won the 2026 party primary with less than 65% of the vote: more than a third of primary voters chose someone else. Top-two primaries, where every party is on one ballot, and Louisiana’s open primary of November 3, 2026 are not counted.

    Each state’s official 2026 primary results. 13 members meet it.

  5. Cash under $250,000, pre-general 2026

    The member’s campaign reported less than $250,000 cash on hand in its pre-general 2026 Federal Election Commission filing, the latest in our data.

    Filings for reporting periods that ended between October 14, 2026 and October 14, 2026. The date of each member’s figure is shown beside it. 24 members meet it.

Open seats in 2028 (one)

AnticipatedOther seats that meet a criterion (ninety-six)

Anticipated: Senate seats

32 of the 35 Senate races in 2028 are listed, in seat order, each with the criteria it meets.

The criteria that open a seat

  1. Vacant seat, special election

    The senator elected to the seat has left it for another office. A senator appointed by the governor holds it until a special election on November 7, 2028, for the rest of the term. The seat is open.

    The election that took the senator to the other office, and the state law on Senate vacancies, linked on the record. 1 senator meets it.

AnticipatedThe other criteria

  1. 62 or older

    The senator will be 62 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028.

    Age from the senator’s date of birth, computed on November 7, 2028. 22 senators meet it.

  2. Appointed, not elected to the seat

    The senator was appointed to the seat and has not been elected to it.

    The Senate’s own record of how each senator was seated. 0 senators meet it.

  3. Public statement on 2028

    The senator has said publicly that they have not decided on a 2028 Senate run, or that they are weighing a run for another office. Reporting about a senator, and silence, do not count.

    The statement on the senator’s record, with its source and date. 10 senators meet it.

  4. State voted for the other party in 2024

    The state’s 2024 presidential winner was of the other party from the senator’s.

    The 2024 statewide presidential result. 5 senators meet it.

  5. Approval under 50%

    Fewer than 50% of registered voters in the state approved of the senator in Morning Consult’s latest quarterly survey.

    Morning Consult, with the survey dates beside each figure. 19 senators meet it.

Open seats in 2028 (one)

AnticipatedOther seats that meet a criterion (thirty-one)

Anticipated: Governor’s races

7 of the 11 governor’s races in 2028 are listed, in seat order, each with the criteria it meets.

The criteria that open a seat

  1. Term-limited

    The state’s term limit keeps the governor off the 2028 ballot. The seat is open.

    The state constitution, linked on the governor’s record. 1 governor meets it.

  2. Said they will not run

    The governor has said publicly they will not run again in 2028. The seat is open.

    The governor’s own statement, with its source and date. 1 governor meets it.

AnticipatedThe other criteria

  1. 62 or older

    The governor will be 62 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028.

    Age from the governor’s date of birth, computed on November 7, 2028. 6 governors meet it.

  2. Approval under 50%

    Fewer than 50% of registered voters in the state approved of the governor in Morning Consult’s latest quarterly survey.

    Morning Consult, with the survey dates beside each figure. 3 governors meet it.

Open seats in 2028 (two)

AnticipatedOther seats that meet a criterion (five)

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