How to read the maps
Read this first
The map
Red or blue: the party that holds the seat in the 120th Congress.
Dark: a seat the search and filters show. With none on, every seat is dark; In the 2028 field shows only the field’s.
Light: a seat the search or filters set aside, red where a Republican holds it, blue where a Democrat does
Governor map: dark is an open seat, mid-strength with a thin edge is a governor who can run again, and pale gray is no race
The district you have open
Dates
A date beside a figure always says what it is.
- Reviewed November 5, 2026
- Published June 25, 2026
- Reporting period ended October 14, 2026
What this site does not do
It does not rank races. It does not score win probability or primary odds.
It does not forecast a result or recommend where anyone should run, and nothing on it supports or opposes anyone running for office.
What this site does not doWhat this is
The House field names every seat held by a Republican or a Democrat who will be 62 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028.
There are 168 of them, in 37 states: 78 held by Republicans and 90 by Democrats. By the district’s lean, sixty-five are solidly Republican (R+10 and up), fifteen lean Republican (R+5 to R+9), thirteen swing (D+4 to R+4), twenty lean Democratic (D+5 to D+9) and fifty-five are solidly Democratic (D+10 and up).
Beside the House field are every Senate race and every governor’s race on the same ballot. Nothing on this site ranks them or says where to run. The point is to see the whole field, then judge it together.
Who is in the House field
A seat is in the House field when both of these are true.
Held by a Republican or a Democrat. The member holds the seat in the 120th Congress as a Republican or as a Democrat.
62 or older on Election Day. Age is counted on November 7, 2028, from the member’s birthday, not at the start of 2028.
In the 120th Congress, 174 of the 435 seats are held by Republicans and 261 by Democrats. Each seat goes to the winner called by November 5, 2026, or, in the thirty-three races still being counted, to the leader. Seventy-eight of those Republicans and ninety of those Democrats will be 62 or older on Election Day: together they are the field. Until October 31, 2026 the field counted Republicans only, measured age from 65 and also asked for a district leaning Republican by 5 points or more and a place on the November 3, 2026 ballot for the same seat. 152 of its seats have their full research record: cash on hand, scorecards, the 2026 primary, polls and endorsements. The other sixteen show the member, the party, the age and the district’s lean, and read Not tracked for the rest.
District lean comes from the published Cook Partisan Voting Index. R+5 means the district leans 5 points Republican, D+5 that it leans 5 points Democratic. The site calls R+10 and up solidly Republican, R+5 to R+9 lean Republican, D+4 to R+4 swing, D+5 to D+9 lean Democratic and D+10 and up solidly Democratic, and shows the label beside the figure.
Two editions of the Cook index appear on the researched records. Every seat’s lean is the Cook Political Report’s 2026 PVI by district, measured on the lines of the November 3, 2026 election, and the site shows it beside every seat. Each full record also shows the 2025 edition, measured on the 119th Congress lines, from the Cook Political Report’s 2025 district list. For eighty-eight of the researched members the two editions differ.
The research views
The House field, the Senate races and the governor races each open on one page with three views of the same records. A switch above the results moves between them, and the chosen view gets the whole stage.
- List
- A table with one row per member or officeholder. Every column sorts from its header, and each name opens the full record. “How to read the table” explains every column. On a tablet the table keeps its main columns, and on a phone each row shows the same figures, the sorted one first, with the rest under “More figures”.
- Map
- Every district or state, colored as “Reading the map” below explains, with the list beside it. Selecting a district or state opens a short preview beside the map, with “Open the full record”.
- Chart
- Every member or officeholder placed by two facts, lean across and age on Election Day up, with the list beside it. “The chart” below explains it.
Above the views sit a search box, a sort, up to three quick filters and “More filters” for the rest, with a count of the filters that are on. On a phone the filters share one “Filters” button and the sort has its own button. Each filter that is on shows as a chip you can remove, with “Clear all” at the end. The page’s address keeps the view, the filters and the sort, so a link reopens the same results.
Reading the map
Every one of the 435 House districts is drawn. On every map, red or blue is the party that holds the seat in the 120th Congress: red a Republican, blue a Democrat. That is the map’s default layer.
The key is at the top of the page.
The switch “Color by” above each map adds a second layer, the 2024 presidential winner: red where Donald Trump won the state, blue where Kamala Harris did. Maine and Nebraska use their statewide winner. The key on the map always says which layer is showing.
Dark and light keep one meaning on both layers. On the House map a district is dark while the search and filters show it and a light tint once they set it aside; the filter In the 2028 field leaves the 168 districts of the field dark. On the 2024 layer a dark blue district is a seat in a state Harris won, whichever party holds it. Gray is neither party: seats held by independents, and seats that are vacant, hatched so color is not the only sign. On the governor map the dark states are the two open seats and a mid-strength fill with a thin edge means the governor can run again; on the Senate map every race is dark. A state with no race for the office is gray.
District lines are the 120th Congress’s (2027 to 2029), from the U.S. Census Bureau: the lines on which each state elected its members on November 3, 2026, new in Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. Missouri’s are its 2022 lines, which it kept for 2026.
Click any district to go one layer deeper: a light district opens its state, a dark one opens its member’s preview. On a state’s map, each district in the field carries its number and its member’s surname. When a district is too small to hold them, they sit on a white flag beside it, and the flag opens the member too. On the Senate and governor maps a state’s code and the officeholder’s surname sit inside the state when every letter fits; otherwise the surname is on a white flag beside the state, joined to it by a thin line. Drag to move the map; click the map, then scroll, or pinch, to zoom. The plus and minus buttons always work. The back button on the map, the Escape key, a click on open water, or your browser’s back button each step out one layer.
On a phone the list comes first. The Map button at the bottom of the screen opens the map under the site’s masthead: one finger moves it, two fingers pinch to zoom, and a tap opens a district or a state. Four buttons under it, West, Midwest, South and Northeast, frame the map on a region. A preview rises along the bottom, and “View list” returns to the list.
The chart
The House chart places every member of the House by two facts: the district’s lean, D+ to the left and R+ to the right, and age on Election Day 2028, bottom to top.
Each square is colored like the map’s layer: the party that holds the seat, red for a Republican and blue for a Democrat, or with the 2024 layer on, the state’s 2024 presidential winner. The Senate and governor charts place each officeholder by the state’s lean and age on Election Day, red for a Republican and blue for a Democrat.
Search and filters dim the squares that do not match; nothing moves. Point at a square to see who it is, and select it to open the full record. The chart has no zones and draws no lines: where a member sits is a pair of facts.
Average age by party
The home page gives the average age of Republicans and Democrats on January 3, 2027, the first day of the 120th Congress. In the House, Republicans average 58.3 and Democrats 55.2; in the Senate, Republicans average 64.1 and Democrats 61.9; among governors, Republicans average 61.3 and Democrats 56.4.
The House and Senate are the members-elect and senators of the 120th Congress, seated as the rest of this page describes; the Senate’s two independents are in neither party. The governors are the 50 who hold office after the November 3, 2026 elections. Each age is exact to the day, or the midpoint of the span a birth month, a birth year or a dated report of age allows. One House Democrat has no birth date on file and is counted out of the average.
Full records
Every seat has a full record on its own page: a House seat at /house/FL-27, a senator at /senate/IA, a governor at /governors/VT. Each record lists its sections under “On this page”, beside the record on a wide screen and in a bar under the header on a phone.
- Overview
- The key figures, each with its date, and the facts behind them.
- The office
- For a House member, In the House. For a senator, In the Senate, the filibuster, and the state’s other seat. For a governor, the term limit and tenure, and the state’s rules for governor.
- Election history
- The latest races, and for the House the 2026 primary, the November ballot and what races in the seat cost.
- Financial records
- Cash on hand and money raised in past cycles.
- Scorecards
- Every published scorecard, each out of 100 or as the group grades it.
- Endorsements
- Mirrored for each party: Donald Trump, Club for Growth, Turning Point Action and MAHA PAC for a Republican; Hakeem Jeffries, Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC and the Democratic Socialists of America for a Democrat.
- Polls
- Every public poll of a House member’s 2026 race, where there is one.
- Sources
- Where every figure on the record comes from, linked.
At the top of each record: Print the brief, Copy link, See on the map, and Contact American Ascent. A House seat without a research record has a shorter record: who holds it, the party, the age on Election Day, the district’s lean, and the House page’s filters it shows under.
Dates
A date beside a figure always says what it is. Three kinds appear: when we reviewed a record, when a source was published, and the reporting period a filing covers.
- Reviewed
- The day we last checked the records against their sources. It sits under the title of each research page and each full record: the Senate and governor records were last reviewed on November 5, 2026, the House field on November 5, 2026.
- Published
- The day the source released the information. The Census Bureau published the population estimates behind the median age on the home page on June 25, 2026.
- Reporting period
- The span of time a filing covers, named by its last day. Cash on hand is the campaign’s money on that day, from its latest filing: Maria Elvira Salazar’s, on the FL-27 record, is “Reporting period ended October 14, 2026”.
Approval ratings carry their survey dates instead, for example April 1 to June 30, 2026. An election carries the day it was held.
The Senate and governors
The Senate and governor maps show every race on the November 7, 2028 ballot, held by either party: thirty-five Senate seats and eleven governor’s races. There is no age or lean test; each officeholder’s age on Election Day and the state’s lean are shown as facts.
Four of these seats were also on the November 3, 2026 ballot: Sherrod Brown won Ohio’s special election and Ashley Moody Florida’s, each for the rest of the term, and Kelly Ayotte and Phil Scott were re-elected governor of New Hampshire and Vermont, which elect their governors every two years. Tennessee’s Class 1 seat is also on the November 7, 2028 ballot, in a special election for the rest of the term to January 3, 2031: Marsha Blackburn was elected governor on November 3, 2026, and the governor appoints a senator until then. Minnesota’s Class 1 seat, which Amy Klobuchar leaves for the governor’s office, is filled by appointment and a special election on November 2, 2027. Each record names the 2026 election.
On these two maps the colors are the ones in “Reading the map”. On the governor map every race can be opened, and the dark states are the open seats: the governor is term-limited or has said they will not run again. Every state with a race carries its abbreviation and the officeholder’s surname, on a small flag where the state is too small to hold them. Filters narrow the list to one party, to officeholders who will be 62 or older on Election Day, or to open governor seats; the rest of the map dims.
For each senator: the senator’s own public position on ending the legislative filibuster, and on a talking filibuster that requires senators to hold the floor to block a vote. Each comes from a recorded vote, such as the Senate’s January 19, 2022 vote on a talking-filibuster rules change, or a dated public statement, linked to its source. No public position found means exactly that.
For each governor: whether the state’s term limit keeps the governor off the 2028 ballot, which leaves the seat open; how many more terms the governor could still win; and the latest date the governor could serve to under the limit. A governor’s own pledge to serve no longer, where there is one, is shown beside the legal limit, and a governor who has said they will not run again counts as an open seat.
Approval is the latest published Morning Consult rating, from its quarterly survey of registered voters in each state, with the survey dates. Scorecards follow the House: for senators, Heritage Action (lifetime), Club for Growth (lifetime), Turning Point Action (lifetime) and GOP Platform (2025) where each publishes a score; for governors, the Cato Institute’s Fiscal Policy Report Card, whose latest edition (2024) grades only governors then in office. Endorsements follow the House too: Donald Trump, Club for Growth, Turning Point Action and MAHA PAC, for the 2028 race so far and for the officeholder’s last race. Every senator and governor has a one-page brief, linked from their record.
State lean is the statewide 2025 Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Cash on hand for senators is from the latest Federal Election Commission filing of the senator’s campaign committee. Governors report campaign money to their own state, on the state’s own schedule, so the site shows it only where the state’s latest report could be checked, and the reporting periods differ widely: from December 31, 2024 in North Dakota to October 27, 2026 in Vermont. Read each figure with its date. Missouri and New Hampshire show no figure: the state’s report could not be checked. A governor who cannot run again under the state’s term limits is marked term-limited.
Signals are public statements or reporting about 2028 plans, each with its source and date.
What each figure means
Each member in the list beside the map shows age, lean, cash on hand and the two scorecard averages, conservative and progressive. Whatever the list is sorted by comes first. The List view’s table adds the 2026 primary, the party leader’s endorsement and any retirement signal. A check with the leader’s name in the Party leader column means the member’s party leader endorsed them: Donald Trump for a Republican, Hakeem Jeffries for a Democrat; anything else is printed in words. Open a member for everything below.
- Age
- The member’s age on Election Day 2028.
- Lean
- The district’s 2026 Cook Partisan Voting Index. R+5 to R+9 is lean Republican; R+10 and up is solidly Republican.
- Cash on hand
- Cash on hand from the member’s pre-general 2026 filing with the Federal Election Commission, the latest in our data, with the end of the reporting period it covers. The full record’s past cycles set it beside cash on hand at the end of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- In the House
- The year the member’s current, unbroken House service began, and any earlier service. Nine members in the field returned after a break. Then every leadership post the member held in the 119th Congress: House party leadership, and the chair or vice chair of a committee or subcommittee, as the Clerk of the House listed them. The 120th Congress names its own when it convenes on January 3, 2027. A gold mark in the list names a 119th Congress leadership post or a full committee the member chaired; 12 members chaired one.
- Past cycles
- In the full record: money raised in each two-year cycle from 2020 to 2024, the share that came from individual donors, and cash on hand on December 31 of the election year, from Federal Election Commission filings, in dollars as reported.
- Primary
- The member’s 2026 primary, from the state’s results: the member’s share of the vote, and in the list the margin over the next candidate in points. Unopposed means no one else was on the ballot, or no primary was held because no one else filed. California’s top-two primary put every candidate on one ballot and advanced the two with the most votes, whatever their party. Louisiana’s House primary was on the November 3, 2026 ballot, every candidate on it; Won outright means the member took a majority there, so the seat has no December runoff. The full record shows the whole ballot with votes and links to the results.
- November ballot
- Every name printed on the member’s November 3, 2026 ballot for the seat, the major-party opponent first, from the state’s official candidate list. Write-in candidates are left out. The list beside the map names the opponent the member beat, or leads in a race still being counted.
- Scorecards
- Four scorecards, each out of 100, one bar each. Heritage Action (lifetime), the member’s lifetime score as Heritage Action for America publishes it on the member’s own scorecard page, read on dates from October 4, 2026 to October 31, 2026, each shown on its record; Club for Growth (the member’s lifetime rating); Turning Point Action (lifetime), the member’s lifetime score on the official Turning Point Action scorecard, read from the member’s own page on dates from October 4, 2026 to November 2, 2026, each shown on its record; and GOP Platform (2025), which measures agreement with the national Republican Party platform and is published by the Institute for Legislative Analysis. Three are lifetime scores, as each group counts them; GOP Platform covers 2025 only. Each group’s name on the record links to the member’s own page on its scorecard, or to the scorecard’s main page where the group has no page for the member, and the record says which. The conservative average is the average of the four, counting only those present. Mirrored beside them, for every member of either party, are three progressive scores: two lifetime scores, the League of Conservation Voters’ (read from the member’s own page) and Progressive Punch’s on all votes (read from its House table), and Democracy Defenders Action’s Stop Corruption Now score for the 119th Congress (published September 16, 2026; its total on 10 anti-corruption and pro-democracy votes and cosponsorships, shown out of 100), with their own progressive average. No score published means the group published none, not zero, and it is left out of the average.
- Immigration
- The Immigration Accountability Project’s IAP Action score. It counts sponsorship, cosponsorship, and votes on immigration. It is a running total, not a percentage, and higher means more restrictive on immigration. The member’s page also shows where they rank in the House on that score.
- Second Amendment
- The member’s grade in the Gun Owners of America 2024 Voter Guide, from A+ to F-: Gun Owners of America’s 2024 grades, its latest complete set.
- Latest poll of the 2026 race
- The newest public poll of the member’s 2026 race, before the November 3, 2026 election: the member’s share, then the strongest opponent’s. See Polling below.
- Signal
- A gold mark beside a name means published reporting of a 2028 departure the member has not announced.
- Endorsements
- Mirrored for each party, for the 2026 race. A Republican: whether Donald Trump, Club for Growth, Turning Point Action, or MAHA PAC endorsed the member, and where MAHA PAC spent against the member. MAHA PAC is the committee at themahapac.com, led by Tony Lyons and Mark Gorton (Federal Election Commission ID C00821439), not an earlier committee of the same name that has since closed; its spending comes from its filings with the Commission. A Democrat: whether Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, or the Democratic Socialists of America (its national endorsements, not a local chapter's) endorsed the member, and where one of them backed an opponent. A contribution from a group’s PAC to the member’s campaign counts as an endorsement. The list marks a member their party’s leader did not back, and any other group’s endorsement or opposition.
Polling
Polls appear only where a public poll of the member’s 2026 race was published. That was 20 of the 152 researched members, with 35 polls in all. Most of these districts had no public poll.
Each poll is checked against its own release or the news report of its results, and the member’s full record links to that source from the pollster’s name.
A poll shows the member’s share on the left and the strongest opponent’s on the right, on a scale of 100. The gap between the two bars is the share that was undecided or chose someone else, and the line at the middle marks half the vote. Red is a Republican candidate and blue a Democratic one; when both are Republicans, as in a top-two race, the other Republican is hatched.
When a ballot has more than two candidates, as in a top-two primary or a race with an independent, the record lists every name on the same scale of 100.
Where a campaign or an outside group paid for a poll, the record names it and says whom it backs. Most district polls are paid for by one side, so read each with that in mind. A hypothetical poll was taken before the nominee was known. A gap smaller than the margin of error is not a clear lead.
Only the question asked before the poll says anything about the candidates is shown. Some polls then describe the candidates and ask again; those later answers test a campaign’s message rather than measure the race, so they are left out.
What a race costs
Each member’s record shows what races in the seat have cost, as facts from free public data. There is no estimate and no cost score: what was spent, how many voted, and how much of each TV market the district is.
- TV market
- The Nielsen markets (Designated Market Areas) the district sits in, matched county by county on the lines of the 2026 election. Two shares: how much of the district lives in each market, and how much of the market lives in the district. A district that is a small share of a large market pays to reach many viewers who cannot vote for its candidates. TV homes are Nielsen’s 2024-25 estimates; shares are of people, from the 2020 Census.
- Spent
- Every campaign’s spending in that contest, from its reports to the Federal Election Commission, plus outside money (independent expenditures). Campaign spending leaves out contributions to party committees and other candidates. A primary counts spending from January 1 of the year before through primary day; a general counts spending after the primary through December 31.
- A vote
- Spent divided by every vote cast in that contest, from the results. The member’s own spending is included, so a seat whose member faced no real race can still show a high figure.
- Google ads
- Election ads for every race, the presidency included, served in the district on Google and YouTube since 2018, from Google’s Political Ads transparency report, by the version of the district’s lines Google reports.
Some 2026 primaries were held after the last report filed before them, so spending there stops about 20 days before the primary; the full record gives each figure’s date. Where a state’s 2024 primary results could not be checked, that race shows spending but no figure a vote.
General-election outcomes
Each brief shows the officeholder’s last general-election vote share and victory margin. Vote share is the candidate’s votes divided by all valid votes in that contest, including minor parties and valid write-ins. The victory margin is the candidate’s share minus the runner-up’s share, in percentage points. Blank ballots, overvotes and invalid write-ins are excluded. Where a state’s published percentage counts those ballots, the brief recalculates the share from valid candidate votes and says so.
For comparable 2024 races, the brief also shows the same party’s presidential vote share and margin in the same geography: Trump over Harris for Republicans, Harris over Trump for Democrats. The note flags a victory margin more than four percentage points below that presidential margin. It uses unrounded vote totals; exactly four points does not qualify. The vote-share difference is shown alongside it, but does not trigger the note.
The comparison requires a general election with one Republican and one Democrat and an opposing major-party runner-up. Unopposed races, same-party contests, races without an opposing major-party runner-up, Louisiana’s November open primary, runoffs and ranked-choice rounds do not receive the note. Earlier elections still show their result, with the year and voting round, but are not compared with 2024. Appointed officeholders have no election result for that seat.
House returns come from the Clerk of the House. The district presidential baseline is The Downballot’s archived 2024 calculation, on the district lines used in that election, with its published method. It is separate from the Cook index and the 2026 district lines elsewhere on the site. State presidential totals and 2022 Senate returns come from the Federal Election Commission; governor returns come from the linked state election reports.
The brief
Every member’s full record links to a one-page brief: the same facts set on a single sheet of letter paper, with a small map of where the district sits in its state. Every senator and governor has one too, and there is a one-page briefing on American Ascent itself. Print it or save it as a PDF from the page. Like the rest of the site, it opens only after signing in.
Redistricting
District lines are redrawn after each census, so the 2032 election will be the first on lines drawn after the 2030 census. Lines can also change between censuses, which is why each House record shows the district’s lean on two sets of lines, as Who is in the House field explains.
A member’s record carries a 2032 redistricting flag in seven states American Ascent watches for those maps: California, Colorado, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Washington. Beside the flag, the record says who draws the map in that state, from its constitution or law, and links to it.
- California
- California’s Citizens Redistricting Commission draws the map after each census: 14 members, 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 from neither party. For the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections the state uses a map the Legislature passed in August 2025, which voters approved as Proposition 50 on November 4, 2025. The commission draws again in 2031.
- Colorado
- Colorado’s Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission adopts the map: 12 members, 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans and 4 unaffiliated. The Colorado Supreme Court must approve it.
- Maryland
- Maryland’s General Assembly draws the map as a law. The governor can veto it, and three-fifths of each house can override the veto.
- Minnesota
- Minnesota’s Legislature draws the map as a law, which the governor can veto. In 2002, 2012 and 2022 no map became law in time, and each time a panel of judges appointed by the Chief Justice of the Minnesota Supreme Court drew it.
- New Jersey
- New Jersey’s Redistricting Commission draws the map. Twelve members are named by the four legislative leaders and the state chairs of the two largest parties: today six Democrats and six Republicans. At least seven of them choose a 13th, independent member to chair it; if they cannot, the New Jersey Supreme Court picks one of their top two.
- New York
- New York’s Independent Redistricting Commission proposes the map and the Legislature votes on it. If the Legislature rejects two proposals, it may draw its own. In 2022 a special master appointed by a state court drew the map after the state’s highest court struck down the Legislature’s.
- Washington
- Washington’s Redistricting Commission draws the map: four members who vote, one named by each of the two largest parties’ leaders in each chamber of the Legislature, and a chair who does not vote. The Legislature may amend the map only by a two-thirds vote of each chamber, within the first 30 days of its next session.
Open seats
A Republican member who has said, on the public record, that they will run for another office in 2028 leaves the House seat open that year. The member carries an Open seat mark in the list and under their age in the table, and the record’s Overview shows what they said, who reported it and when.
- TN-02, Tim Burchett
- Marsha Blackburn was elected governor of Tennessee on November 3, 2026. Burchett has said he is seeking appointment to her Senate seat, and that if someone else is appointed he will run against them in 2028, when Tennessee elects a senator for the rest of the term.
Retirement signals
A short list of members-elect with published reporting of a 2028 departure they have not announced, with the reporting behind each. Members in the field carry a Retirement signal mark in the list, and their record shows the signal and its source. Signals for members outside the field are listed at the end of the list.
A member who has said they will run for another office in 2028 is an open seat, above.
Anticipated lists
The Anticipated page lists, for each office, the seats that meet criteria American Ascent states. The criteria are our own. Each one is a fact on the public record, already shown on the seat’s full record with its source and date.
- Anticipated
- A fact that can open the seat in 2028, under a criterion American Ascent states.
A seat is listed when it meets at least one criterion. Each seat shows which criteria it meets, the fact behind each, and how many it meets. The lists are in seat order, by state.
The House list covers the members of the House field. Its criteria:
- Running for another office
- The member has said they will run for another office in 2028, so they will not be on the ballot for this seat. The seat is open. The member’s own words as reported, with the source and date.
- Anticipated: 75 or older
- The member will be 75 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028. Every member of the House field is 62 or older; this list uses 75. Age from the member’s date of birth, computed on November 7, 2028.
- Anticipated: Retirement signal
- A public retirement signal is on record: reporting or a statement that points to a 2028 departure the officeholder has not announced. The site’s hand-kept list of retirement signals, with the reporting behind each.
- Anticipated: 2032 redistricting flag
- The seat is in one of the seven states American Ascent flags for the maps drawn after the 2030 census, the first used in 2032. The flag and who draws each state’s map are explained on the Method page.
- Anticipated: 2026 primary under 65%
- The member won the 2026 party primary with less than 65% of the vote: more than a third of primary voters chose someone else. Top-two primaries, where every party is on one ballot, and Louisiana’s open primary of November 3, 2026 are not counted. Each state’s official 2026 primary results.
- Anticipated: Cash under $250,000, pre-general 2026
- The member’s campaign reported less than $250,000 cash on hand in its pre-general 2026 Federal Election Commission filing, the latest in our data. Filings for reporting periods that ended between October 14, 2026 and October 14, 2026. The date of each member’s figure is shown beside it.
The Senate list covers every Senate race in 2028. Its criteria:
- Anticipated: 62 or older
- The senator will be 62 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028. Age from the senator’s date of birth, computed on November 7, 2028.
- Vacant seat, special election
- The senator elected to the seat has left it for another office. A senator appointed by the governor holds it until a special election on November 7, 2028, for the rest of the term. The seat is open. The election that took the senator to the other office, and the state law on Senate vacancies, linked on the record.
- Anticipated: Appointed, not elected to the seat
- The senator was appointed to the seat and has not been elected to it. The Senate’s own record of how each senator was seated.
- Anticipated: Public statement on 2028
- The senator has said publicly that they have not decided on a 2028 Senate run, or that they are weighing a run for another office. Reporting about a senator, and silence, do not count. The statement on the senator’s record, with its source and date.
- Anticipated: State voted for the other party in 2024
- The state’s 2024 presidential winner was of the other party from the senator’s. The 2024 statewide presidential result.
- Anticipated: Approval under 50%
- Fewer than 50% of registered voters in the state approved of the senator in Morning Consult’s latest quarterly survey. Morning Consult, with the survey dates beside each figure.
The governor list covers every governor’s race in 2028. Two of its criteria, a term limit and the governor’s own statement that they will not run, already open the seat, so they carry no Anticipated tag, and the list shows those seats first, as open seats. Its criteria:
- Term-limited
- The state’s term limit keeps the governor off the 2028 ballot. The seat is open. The state constitution, linked on the governor’s record.
- Said they will not run
- The governor has said publicly they will not run again in 2028. The seat is open. The governor’s own statement, with its source and date.
- Anticipated: 62 or older
- The governor will be 62 or older on Election Day, November 7, 2028. Age from the governor’s date of birth, computed on November 7, 2028.
- Anticipated: Approval under 50%
- Fewer than 50% of registered voters in the state approved of the governor in Morning Consult’s latest quarterly survey. Morning Consult, with the survey dates beside each figure.
What the lists leave out. They use only facts already in the site’s data, so a fact we have not recorded cannot place a seat on a list. They do not weigh one criterion against another. Cash on hand and approval change with every filing and survey; each list shows the date of the figure it used.
Sources
Every figure in the records, the briefs and The Forecast for 2028 carries its source and its date. Each full record ends with its Sources, linked; each one-page brief names its sources in small print; and the pages of The Forecast for 2028 number theirs. District and state lines are the U.S. Census Bureau’s, 120th Congress.
What this site does not do
It does not rank races. It does not score win probability or primary odds.
It does not forecast a result or recommend where anyone should run, and nothing on it supports or opposes anyone running for office.
The list is the whole point. Any judgement concerning the list happens in conversation and is not reflected in the software.