Tulchin Research (opens in a new tab)24
September 2026
600 likely voters
Sponsored by House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, which backs Rodriguez.
Republican. Florida’s 27th District. Leads the count as of November 5, 2026.
Lean is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) on the district’s 2026 election lines: R+10 and up is solidly Republican, R+5 to R+9 lean Republican, D+4 to R+4 swing, D+5 to D+9 lean Democratic and D+10 and up solidly Democratic. A 2032 redistricting flag marks one of seven states American Ascent watches for the maps drawn after the 2030 census, with who draws the map there.
Leadership posts and committees in the 119th Congress, as the Clerk of the House listed them on October 1, 2026; the 120th Congress names its own when it convenes on January 3, 2027. Chairman and Chairwoman are written as Chair. A gold mark names a leadership post. Years in the House come from the public congress-legislators record of every member’s terms.
The 2026 primary, who was on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and what recent races in the seat cost.
On the November 3, 2026 ballot
Official results (opens in a new tab)5 from the state’s election office. Every name printed on the November 3, 2026 ballot for the seat, from the state’s official candidate list; write-in candidates are left out.
Facts from free public data: the TV markets the district sits in, what every campaign and outside group spent in recent races, and the votes cast. Spending is campaign spending, less contributions to party committees and other candidates, plus independent expenditures. A vote is any vote cast in that contest.15
| Market | TV homes | Of the district | District is, of market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami–Fort Lauderdale, FL (rank 18) | 1,756,920 | 100% | 16.3% |
Markets are Nielsen’s Designated Market Areas, matched to the district county by county on the 2026 lines (1 county or parts). Shares are of people, from the 2020 Census. TV homes are Nielsen’s 2024-25 estimates. A small share of a large market means most of what a TV buy reaches lives outside the district.10
$1,238,549 spent · $34.47 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | 29,233 | $1,127,679 through July 29, 2026 |
| V. Michael Arias (R) | 6,703 | $110,870 through July 29, 2026 |
| Outside money | $0 |
35,936 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Results (opens in a new tab)5.
† Spending through July 29, 2026. Some spending stops at the last report filed before the primary, about 20 days before it.
$928,877 spent · $21.40 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | 38,493 | $928,877 |
| Royland Lara (R) | 4,908 | No report |
| Outside money | $0 |
43,401 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Results (opens in a new tab)7.
$1,083,365 spent · $3.28 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | 199,159 | $801,018 |
| Lucia Baez-Geller (D) | 130,708 | $282,347 |
| Outside money | $0 |
329,867 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Results (opens in a new tab)8.
$7,344,556 spent · $30.93 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | 136,038 | $2,890,582 |
| Annette Taddeo (D) | 101,404 | $1,606,961 |
| Outside money: Congressional Leadership Fund, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action, LATINO VOTE FOR AMERICA PAC | $2,847,013 |
237,442 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Outside money: $860,103 for the member, $70,000 against, $1,916,910 for or against others. Results (opens in a new tab)9.
$1,984,200 on the lines Google labels 2026; $2,675,800 on the lines Google labels 2022; $3,092,100 on the lines Google labels 2012
Election ads for every race, the presidency included, served in the district on Google, YouTube and Google’s partner sites since 2018, rounded by Google to the nearest hundred dollars. Report updated Oct. 31, 2026.14
| Cycle | Raised | From individuals | Cash at year end |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3,690,747 | 86% | $21,258 |
| 2022 | $5,647,931 | 69% | $29,880 |
| 2024 | $3,230,464 | 28% | $1,410,827 |
Cash on hand from the member’s latest filing with the Federal Election Commission. Past cycles: money raised over each two-year cycle and cash on hand on December 31 of its election year, from the same filings, in dollars as reported. From individuals is the share of money raised that came from individual donors.
Conservative average
73.1
Heritage Action and Turning Point Action are the member’s lifetime scores, read from those pages. Club for Growth is the member’s lifetime rating, and GOP Platform measures agreement with the national Republican Party platform in 2025, published by the Institute for Legislative Analysis.
The scorecard average covers all four. No score means none was published, not zero, and is left out of the average: the record says “No score published”.
Each group’s name links to the member’s own page on its scorecard, opened on the date shown.
Progressive average
14.8
Mirrored for every member, of either party: the League of Conservation Voters’ lifetime score, read from the member’s page; Progressive Punch’s lifetime score on all votes, read from its House table; and Democracy Defenders Action’s Stop Corruption Now score for the 119th Congress (September 16, 2026), its total on 10 anti-corruption and pro-democracy votes and cosponsorships, shown out of 100. The progressive average covers the three; no score means none was published (Stop Corruption Now did not grade members in office for less than a year, or certain current and former House leaders).
The Immigration Accountability Project’s IAP Action score counts sponsorship, cosponsorship, and votes on immigration. A running total, not a percentage. Higher means more restrictive on immigration.
Gun Owners of America’s 2024 grades, its latest complete set, from its 2024 Voter Guide, A+ to F-.
For the 2026 race.
Endorsed: Donald Trump.
None on record: Club for Growth, Turning Point Action, MAHA PAC.
Endorsed: the group endorsed the member for 2026. None on record: no 2026 endorsement in the endorsement records. MAHA PAC is the committee at themahapac.com (Federal Election Commission ID C00821439).
4 public polls of the 2026 race, newest first. Salazar’s share is always on the left. Red is a Republican candidate, blue a Democratic one.
Shares are as published, so they add up to less than 100 when some voters were undecided. The line at the middle marks half the vote. The pollster’s name links to the poll’s release or the news report of its results.
Tulchin Research (opens in a new tab)24
September 2026
600 likely voters
Sponsored by House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, which backs Rodriguez.
Bendixen & Amandi International (opens in a new tab)25
Aug. 25 to 30, 2026
600 likely voters
Margin of error ±4.0
Sponsored by the Rodriguez campaign.
Blueprint Polling (opens in a new tab)26
March 6 to 8, 2026
451 voters
Margin of error ±4.6
A Democratic-aligned pollster.
Tested before the nominee was known.
Taken before the August 18 primary, so both matchups were hypothetical.
Kaplan Strategies (opens in a new tab)27
July 2025
804 likely voters
Margin of error ±3.0
Tested before the nominee was known.
Four matchups tested a year before the primary, so all were hypothetical.
Each section lists its own sources, numbered through the page. Here they are together.
Record 37 of 152 in the House field, in order of state and district.