Hendrix College (opens in a new tab)23
Aug. 12 to 13, 2026
1,112 likely voters
Margin of error ±5.3
Sponsored by Talk Business & Politics.
R (Republican)Hill44JonesD (Democrat)48
Hill 44 percent, Jones 48 percent, 8 undecided.J. French Hill
Republican. Arkansas’s 2nd District. Re-elected on November 3, 2026.
Overview
- November 3, 2026 election
- Re-elected
- Over Chris Jones (D). Called by NBC News on November 4, 2026. Takes the seat in the 120th Congress on January 3, 2027.1
- 2026 primary
- Won the 2026 Republican primary with 76.8%, March 3, 2026.
- The state in 2024
- Trump won Arkansas in 2024.
- 2032 redistricting
- Not flagged for 2032 redistricting risk.
Lean is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) on the district’s 2026 election lines: R+10 and up is solidly Republican, R+5 to R+9 lean Republican, D+4 to R+4 swing, D+5 to D+9 lean Democratic and D+10 and up solidly Democratic. A 2032 redistricting flag marks one of seven states American Ascent watches for the maps drawn after the 2030 census, with who draws the map there.
Sources (2)
- 1NBC News: the November 3, 2026 result. Checked November 4, 2026. Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.nbcnews.com/ politics/ 2026-elections/ arkansas-house-results - 2The congress-legislators dataset of every member of Congress: birthday. Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ unitedstates.github.io/ congress-legislators/ legislators-current.json
In the House
- Leadership posts, 119th Congress
- Chair of the Financial Services Committee
- Committees, 119th Congress
- Financial Services
- Intelligence
Leadership posts and committees in the 119th Congress, as the Clerk of the House listed them on October 1, 2026; the 120th Congress names its own when it convenes on January 3, 2027. Chairman and Chairwoman are written as Chair. A gold mark names a leadership post. Years in the House come from the public congress-legislators record of every member’s terms.
Sources (2)
- 3J. French Hill’s official site Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ hill.house.gov - 4Official congressional biography Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ bioguide.congress.gov/ search/ bio/ H001072
Election history
The 2026 primary, who was on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and what recent races in the seat cost.
2026 primary
- Primary date
- March 3, 2026
- Kind
- Republican primary
- Result
- Won with 76.8%March 3. Next: Chase McDowell, 23.2%.
- Votes cast
- 63,909
French Hill (R)49,07976.8%
Chase McDowell (R)14,83023.2%
On the November 3, 2026 ballot
- Chris Jones (Democrat)
Official results (opens in a new tab)5 from the state’s election office. Every name printed on the November 3, 2026 ballot for the seat, from the state’s official candidate list; write-in candidates are left out.
What a race here costs
Facts from free public data: the TV markets the district sits in, what every campaign and outside group spent in recent races, and the votes cast. Spending is campaign spending, less contributions to party committees and other candidates, plus independent expenditures. A vote is any vote cast in that contest.14
TV markets
| Market | TV homes | Of the district | District is, of market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock–Pine Bluff, AR (rank 58) | 590,980 | 100% | 51.6% |
Markets are Nielsen’s Designated Market Areas, matched to the district county by county on the 119th Congress lines (8 counties or parts). Shares are of people, from the 2020 Census. TV homes are Nielsen’s 2024-25 estimates. A small share of a large market means most of what a TV buy reaches lives outside the district.10
2026 primary, March 3, 2026
$2,168,621 spent · $33.93 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| French Hill (R) | 49,079 | $1,588,165 |
| Chase McDowell (R) | 14,830 | $162,398 |
| Outside money: DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS | $418,058 |
63,909 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Outside money: $418,058 for the member, $0 against, $0 for or against others. Results (opens in a new tab)5.
2024 primary, March 5, 2024
No primary held
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| J. French Hill (R) | Not reported | $745,383 |
| Outside money | $0 |
Vote count not yet in our data, on the 2022 lines. Results (opens in a new tab)7.
2024 general, Nov. 5, 2024
$2,388,990 spent · $7.80 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| J. French Hill (R) | 180,509 | $1,827,111 |
| Marcus A. Jones (D) | 125,777 | $405,530 |
| Outside money: DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS, CENTER FORWARD INITIATIVE INC | $156,349 |
306,286 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Outside money: $156,349 for the member, $0 against, $0 for or against others. Results (opens in a new tab)8.
2022 general, Nov. 8, 2022
$1,390,295 spent · $5.64 a vote
| Candidate | Votes | Spent |
|---|---|---|
| French Hill (R) | 147,975 | $1,370,965 |
| Quintessa Hathaway (D) | 86,887 | $4,083 |
| Michael White (Libertarian) | 11,584 | No report |
| Outside money: National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee | $15,248 |
246,446 votes cast, on the 2022 lines. Outside money: $15,248 for the member, $0 against, $0 for or against others. Results (opens in a new tab)9.
Google election ads
$2,265,500 on the lines Google labels 2022; $996,700 on the lines Google labels 2012
Election ads for every race, the presidency included, served in the district on Google, YouTube and Google’s partner sites since 2018, rounded by Google to the nearest hundred dollars. Report updated Oct. 31, 2026.13
Sources (9)
- 52026 primary and the November ballot, official results Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ arkansas.tally-enr.com/ #election=7f77a178-af02-40ec-92db-c5cc50882c68 - 62026 primary, results Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ arkansas.tally-enr.com/ #election=7f77a178-af02-40ec-92db-c5cc50882c68 - 72024 primary, results Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ results.tally-enr.com/ results/ arkansas/ 1845/ FullDataFile.json - 82024 general, results Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ history.house.gov/ Institution/ Election-Statistics/ 2024election/ - 92022 general, results Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.fec.gov/ documents/ 5676/ federalelections2022.xlsx - 10BritCrit/dma_county_zip: county FIPS to Nielsen DMA code and name (Nielsen edition not stated; published Dec. 22, 2021; uses pre-2015 county codes), checked against Nielsen’s 2016 county list Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ github.com/ BritCrit/ dma_county_zip - 11Nielsen, Local Television Market Universe Estimates (TV homes and rank, 210 DMAs), as reproduced in full by National Media Spots Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ nationalmediaspots.com/ DMA-Ranks.pdf - 12U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census: 119th Congressional District Summary File (county or part within district) and PL 94-171 block populations for 2026 plans; county totals are 2020 counts Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www2.census.gov/ programs-surveys/ decennial/ 2020/ data/ 119th-congressional-district-summary-file - 13Google Political Ads transparency report Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ adstransparency.google.com/ political?region=US
Financial records
- Cash on hand
- $1,488,43114
Past cycles
| Cycle | Raised | From individuals | Cash at year end |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3,423,234 | 50% | $410,779 |
| 2022 | $3,396,282 | 47% | $880,665 |
| 2024 | $3,802,051 | 46% | $1,376,352 |
Cash on hand from the member’s latest filing with the Federal Election Commission. Past cycles: money raised over each two-year cycle and cash on hand on December 31 of its election year, from the same filings, in dollars as reported. From individuals is the share of money raised that came from individual donors.
Sources (5)
- 14FEC bulk data: candidates, committee linkages, Form 3 report summaries, operating expenditures, independent expenditures Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.fec.gov/ data/ browse-data/ ?tab=bulk-data - 15FEC, Federal Elections 2022 (2022 general results and primary dates) Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.fec.gov/ documents/ 5676/ federalelections2022.xlsx - 16FEC, 2024 congressional general-election candidates Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.fec.gov/ documents/ 5548/ 2024congressgecands.xlsx - 17FEC, 2024 congressional primary dates Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.fec.gov/ resources/ cms-content/ documents/ 2024pdates.pdf - 18Clerk of the House, Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 5, 2024 Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ history.house.gov/ Institution/ Election-Statistics/ 2024election/
Scorecards
Conservative scorecards, out of 100
- Heritage Action (opens in a new tab) lifetime
- 72
- Club for Growth (opens in a new tab) lifetime
- 72
- Turning Point Action (opens in a new tab) lifetime
- 80
Conservative average
74.5
Heritage Action and Turning Point Action are the member’s lifetime scores, read from those pages. Club for Growth is the member’s lifetime rating, and GOP Platform measures agreement with the national Republican Party platform in 2025, published by the Institute for Legislative Analysis.
The scorecard average covers all four. No score means none was published, not zero, and is left out of the average: the record says “No score published”.
How to read this
Each group’s name links to the member’s own page on its scorecard, opened on the date shown.
Progressive scorecards, out of 100
- Progressive Punch (opens in a new tab) lifetime, all votes
- 4
- The link opens the scorecard’s list for the state, which shows this score: the member’s own page is not available.
- Stop Corruption Now (Democracy Defenders Action) (opens in a new tab) 119th Congress, 10 measures
- 20
Progressive average
10.5
Mirrored for every member, of either party: the League of Conservation Voters’ lifetime score, read from the member’s page; Progressive Punch’s lifetime score on all votes, read from its House table; and Democracy Defenders Action’s Stop Corruption Now score for the 119th Congress (September 16, 2026), its total on 10 anti-corruption and pro-democracy votes and cosponsorships, shown out of 100. The progressive average covers the three; no score means none was published (Stop Corruption Now did not grade members in office for less than a year, or certain current and former House leaders).
Immigration accountability
- IAP Action score
- 100
- Rank in the House on this score
- 160 of 431
The Immigration Accountability Project’s IAP Action score counts sponsorship, cosponsorship, and votes on immigration. A running total, not a percentage. Higher means more restrictive on immigration.
Second Amendment grade
- Gun Owners of America, 2024
- B+
Gun Owners of America’s 2024 grades, its latest complete set, from its 2024 Voter Guide, A+ to F-.
Sources (4)
- 19Heritage Action scorecard, J. French Hill’s page Retrieved October 4, 2026. Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ heritageaction.com/ scorecard/ members/ H001072 - 20Club for Growth scorecard, J. French Hill’s page Retrieved October 4, 2026. Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.clubforgrowth.org/ scorecards/ legislator/ H001072/ French-Hill/ - 21Turning Point Action scorecard, J. French Hill’s page Retrieved October 4, 2026. Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.tpaction.com/ scorecard/ legislators/ frenchhill - 22GOP Platform scorecard, J. French Hill’s page Retrieved October 4, 2026. Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ gopscorecard.limitedgov.org/ lawmakers/ french-hill-r-ar-2?year=2025
Endorsements
For the 2026 race.
Endorsed: Donald Trump.
None on record: Club for Growth, Turning Point Action, MAHA PAC.
Endorsed: the group endorsed the member for 2026. None on record: no 2026 endorsement in the endorsement records. MAHA PAC is the committee at themahapac.com (Federal Election Commission ID C00821439).
Polls of the 2026 race
3 public polls of the 2026 race, newest first. Hill’s share is always on the left. Red is a Republican candidate, blue a Democratic one.
How to read this
Shares are as published, so they add up to less than 100 when some voters were undecided. The line at the middle marks half the vote. The pollster’s name links to the poll’s release or the news report of its results.
2040 Strategy Group (opens in a new tab)24
April 28 to May 8, 2026
660 likely voters
Margin of error ±3.5
Sponsored by the Jones campaign.
R (Republican)Hill43JonesD (Democrat)46
Hill 43 percent, Jones 46 percent, 10 undecided, 1 other.John Zogby Strategies (opens in a new tab)25
April 2025
400 adults
Margin of error ±5.0
Sponsored by the Jones campaign.
Tested before the nominee was known.
R (Republican)Hill41.2JonesD (Democrat)40
Hill 41.2 percent, Jones 40 percent, 18.8 undecided.Released in September 2025. The release gave April 24 to 28 as the field dates with no year.
Sources (3)
- 23Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics, Aug. 12 to 13, 2026 Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ talkbusiness.net/ 2026/ 08/ poll-similar-trends-in-cd2-show-tight-race-between-hill-jones - 242040 Strategy Group for the Jones campaign, April 28 to May 8, 2026 Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ arktimes.com/ arkansas-blog/ 2026/ 05/ 21/ chris-jones-noses-ahead-of-french-hill - 25John Zogby Strategies for the Jones campaign, April 2025 Open the source (opens in a new tab) https:/
/ www.arkansasnewsroom.com/ p/ polls-have-2nd-congressional-district
Sources
Each section lists its own sources, numbered through the page. Here they are together.
All sources for this record (25)
Overview
In the House
Election history
- 52026 primary and the November ballot, official results (opens in a new tab)
- 62026 primary, results (opens in a new tab)
- 72024 primary, results (opens in a new tab)
- 82024 general, results (opens in a new tab)
- 92022 general, results (opens in a new tab)
- 10BritCrit/dma_county_zip: county FIPS to Nielsen DMA code and name (Nielsen edition not stated; published Dec. 22, 2021; uses pre-2015 county codes), checked against Nielsen’s 2016 county list (opens in a new tab)
- 11Nielsen, Local Television Market Universe Estimates (TV homes and rank, 210 DMAs), as reproduced in full by National Media Spots (opens in a new tab)
- 12U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census: 119th Congressional District Summary File (county or part within district) and PL 94-171 block populations for 2026 plans; county totals are 2020 counts (opens in a new tab)
- 13Google Political Ads transparency report (opens in a new tab)
Financial records
- 14FEC bulk data: candidates, committee linkages, Form 3 report summaries, operating expenditures, independent expenditures (opens in a new tab)
- 15FEC, Federal Elections 2022 (2022 general results and primary dates) (opens in a new tab)
- 16FEC, 2024 congressional general-election candidates (opens in a new tab)
- 17FEC, 2024 congressional primary dates (opens in a new tab)
- 18Clerk of the House, Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 5, 2024 (opens in a new tab)
Scorecards
- 19Heritage Action scorecard, J. French Hill’s page (opens in a new tab) Retrieved October 4, 2026.
- 20Club for Growth scorecard, J. French Hill’s page (opens in a new tab) Retrieved October 4, 2026.
- 21Turning Point Action scorecard, J. French Hill’s page (opens in a new tab) Retrieved October 4, 2026.
- 22GOP Platform scorecard, J. French Hill’s page (opens in a new tab) Retrieved October 4, 2026.
Polls
Also used, named without a link
- District lean: the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index, 2026 and 2025 editions.
- Committees and leadership posts in the 119th Congress: the Clerk of the House, as listed on October 1, 2026. Years in the House: the public congress-legislators record of every member’s terms.
- Cash on hand and past cycles: the campaign’s Federal Election Commission filings.
- Immigration: the Immigration Accountability Project. Second Amendment: Gun Owners of America, 2024 Voter Guide.
- Endorsements: 2026 endorsement records.
Continue
Record 7 of 152 in the House field, in order of state and district.
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