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American Ascent

Member brief No. PA-16

Reviewed October 31, 2026

PA-16 · Pennsylvania

Mike Kelly

Republican. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2024. Not flagged for 2032 redistricting risk.

Age on Election Day 2028
80
Born May 10, 1948.
Lean
R+11
Solidly Republican. Cook PVI, 2026 lines.
In the House since
2011
Served since January 5, 2011.
Cash on hand
$1.04M
$1,039,192. Reporting period ended October 14, 2026

The 2026 race

November 3, 2026
Re-elected

Over Justin Wagner (D). Called by NBC News on November 4, 2026.

Primary
Unopposed

The only name on the ballot, May 19.

Endorsements, 2026

Endorsed: Donald Trump.

None on record: Club for Growth, Turning Point Action, MAHA PAC.

What a race here costs

TV: Erie, 151,000 homes. The district is 90.2% of the market; 3 markets in all.

2026 primary: $647K spent, $14.63 a vote

2024 general: $1.0M spent, $2.54 a vote

In the House, 119th Congress

  • Chair of the Ways and Means subcommittee on Tax

Committees: Ways and Means

General-election outcomes

2024 vote share
63.65%
Victory margin
+27.31 pts
Trump, 2024
60.96% · +22.77 pts

Margin 4.54 points above Trump. Vote share 2.69 points above.

2024 election districts. Valid votes; margin over the runner-up. Runner-up: Preston Nouri. Returns · Trump baseline · Method. Reviewed November 5, 2026.

Money, past cycles

Money raised, the share from individual donors, and cash on hand, by past cycle
CycleRaisedFrom individualsCash at year end
2020$2.3M28%$959K
2022$1.3M38%$899K
2024$1.7M33%$1.0M

Scorecards and grades

Conservative average, out of 100
73
Progressive average, out of 100
9.9 (LCV 4, Progressive Punch 6, Stop Corruption Now 20)
IAP Action score, immigration
98, rank 179 of 431
Gun Owners of America grade, 2024
B+

Read October 4, 2026 from the member’s page on heritageaction.com, clubforgrowth.org, tpaction.com, gopscorecard.limitedgov.org.